Russia’s immoral invasion of Ukraine continues.
I cannot comment on the military side, although if the commentary I’ve seen is to be believed, the Russians have royally fucked up. They may still win a pyric victory, though, and suffer a long term guerilla war which will force them to eventually withdraw, humiliated. Plus ça change.
I’m thinking about what happens afterwards.
The illegal Russian war on Ukraine is precisely the kind of thing the European Union was put in place to prevent. The EU has been highly successful in this regard; there has never been a war between member states in a region where, beforehand, wars were frequent, deadly, and had the habit of spreading globally.
The EU has inherited conflict. For example, the Troubles were active in Northern Ireland when both the UK and Ireland joined. They don’t compare in nature with Russia’s illegal invasion, but, all the same, they were still a conflict. EU membership itself did not stop that conflict, although, mostly because it wasn’t between the UK and Ireland, rather a smoudlering civil war in Northern Ireland itself. All the same, the EU such played a significant role in the eventual peace that it acted, and acts, as a guarantor of that peace (along with the US). I don’t think I need point out that this role has seriously complicated Brexit.
Ukraine has now applied to join the EU, along with Moldova and Georgia. This is all well and good, although all three countries will have to change significantly before they can actually join. For exampe, their corruption is so bad it approaches that of Russia. I don’t know whether this will happen, nor when, but I hope it does. I am, of course, presuming that Ukraine survives the illegal Russian aggression.
The problem, though, is Russia. It is the aggressor, and it is large, and it is being a bully. If wars are going to be prevented in Europe, then, empirically, Russia has to be a member, and has to want to be a member. I honestly think the EU and the Russians post Putin should work towards that goal, even though it will be a long hard slog. Russian membership would have global ramifications, not least on China, so the whole thing would be rather complicated, and would undoubtedly change both Russia and the European Union significantly. The EU will have to listen properly to the concerns of its existing members that have long experience with Russia, and not just because they’ll have every right to scupper any such membership. Russia is huge, both in population and size, which would require careful integration to preserve the EU’s internal balancing against domination by one or two countries.
All the same, despite the complications, I don’t see a better alternative.